World Bank Revises Nigeria Poverty Headcount Down to 38% on New Data

The World Bank has revised its estimate of Nigeria's poverty headcount ratio downward to 38 per cent from a previous estimate of 46 per cent, following the adoption of a new household survey methodology that provides a more granular picture of living standards across the country.

The revision, published in the Bank's latest Nigeria Economic Update, reflects data from the 2023-24 Nigeria Living Standards Survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics, the first comprehensive household survey in over a decade.

**Why the Numbers Changed**

The new survey incorporates better measurement of non-farm incomes, informal sector earnings, and in-kind benefits that previous surveys failed to capture adequately. Statisticians say the improved methodology paints a more accurate picture of what Nigerians actually consume, rather than relying solely on reported cash income.

**Urban-Rural Divide**

The Bank's report cautions against overstating the improvement. While poverty rates in urban areas — particularly Lagos and Abuja — have fallen meaningfully, rural poverty remains entrenched in the north and parts of the southeast.

The report found that approximately 80 million Nigerians still live below the international poverty line, making Nigeria one of the countries with the highest absolute number of poor people globally despite its middle-income classification.

**Analysts React with Caution**

Independent economists welcomed the methodological improvement but warned against interpreting the downward revision as evidence of widespread welfare gains. Several noted that inflation over the past three years has eroded real purchasing power even for households that technically remain above the poverty line.

A researcher at the Centre for the Study of African Economies said the revision "corrects a statistical undercount, but does not change the lived reality for tens of millions of Nigerians struggling with the cost of food, energy, and education".

**Policy Implications**

The World Bank report calls on the Nigerian government to use the new poverty maps derived from the survey data to better target social protection spending, including the Conditional Cash Transfer programme that reaches a fraction of eligible households.